Backcountry Avalanche Forecast West South
Northwest Avalanche Center
www.nwac.us
- Issued
- Monday, October 12, 2026 - 6:00PM
- Expires
- Tuesday, October 13, 2026 - 6:00PM
- Author
- Rachel Fryan
The Bottom Line
Very dangerous avalanche conditions will persist on Thursday as the West South continues to receive large volumes of rain and high elevation snow from an atmospheric river. If you venture out in the mountains, stay away from all areas where avalanches can start, run, or stop.
Avalanche Danger
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
8000-6500ft4 - High
6500-5500ft4 - High
5500-3500ft3 - Considerable
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
- Upper Elevations
8000-6500ft3 - Considerable - Middle Elevations
6500-5500ft3 - Considerable - Lower Elevations
5500-3500ft2 - Moderate
 1 - Low | 2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable | 4 - High |  5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (2)
Problem #1: Storm Slab
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
Large natural and human triggered avalanches are expected on Thursday near and above treeline. Larger slabs may be found above the expected rain line of ~6500 feet and on leeward slopes where strong winds have deposited snow. Cold temperatures following last week’s rain event developed a stout crust up to ~8000 feet, creating an excellent bed surface for avalanches to run on. On Wednesday, Crystal and White Pass Patrols both reported widespread avalanches up to size D2, easily triggered by humans and explosives, while natural avalanches up to size D1.5 were also observed by NWAC field teams. Many of these slides ran on the crust, while some slides failed on weak snow just above the crust before entraining down to the crust. In some locations, these avalanches were propagating widely in surprising ways. With high precip rates and strong winds, paths that have already run during this cycle may reload and run again. Other slopes that haven’t yet reached their tipping point may only need the added load of Thursday’s strong storm to release.
Problem #2: Wet Loose
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
With the West South primed to receive multiple inches of rain at lower and middle elevations (below ~6500 feet), wet snow avalanches are likely to follow. Wet avalanches are capable of entraining lots of snow, triggering slabs, and traveling far distances as they descend. Steer around slopes greater than 35 degrees and be aware of terrain above you if you witness rain on snow. Additionally, with rapid loading and warming temperatures, cornice collapses are also on our minds. Give cornices a wide berth by not traveling on or below them.
Forecast Discussion
Another round of heavy, wet snow fell overnight with strong winds, keeping storm slabs reactive on all aspects near and above treeline. Recent natural avalanches were observed near Crystal and Paradise, and snowpack tests continued to show clean shears at the new snow / crust interface 30-60 cm down.
Snow levels fluctuate through the day, so expect the boundary between dry storm slabs aloft and wet, glide-prone snow below to move. Steer clear of steep slopes, cornices, and runout zones. Danger should begin to ease Friday as temperatures cool and precipitation tapers to showers.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.