Backcountry Avalanche Forecast West South
Northwest Avalanche Center
www.nwac.us
- Issued
- Tuesday, October 13, 2026 - 6:00PM
- Expires
- Wednesday, October 14, 2026 - 6:00PM
- Author
- Rachel Fryan
The Bottom Line
Give slopes where avalanches can start, run, and stop a wide berth Wednesday. Very dangerous conditions and large natural avalanches may occur during periods of heavy precipitation, rapidly rising temperatures, and blowing snow.
Avalanche Danger
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
8000-6500ft4 - High
6500-5500ft4 - High
5500-3500ft3 - Considerable
Thursday, October 15, 2026
- Upper Elevations
8000-6500ft4 - High - Middle Elevations
6500-5500ft3 - Considerable - Lower Elevations
5500-3500ft2 - Moderate
 1 - Low | 2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable | 4 - High |  5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (2)
Problem #1: Storm Slab
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
All the pieces are in place for natural slab avalanches Wednesday; potentially weak snow surfaces, rising temperatures, heavy precipitation, and strong winds. Its less about if the avalanches will occur and more about when. If you travel out of the deep dark forest, steer around all slopes where avalanches can start, run, and stop. Natural avalanches will be most likely during periods of blowing snow, heavy precipitation, and when snow changes to rain.
The bulk of the precipitation seems to impact Paradise and to a lesser extent Mt St Helens and Mt Adams. That doesn’t mean other areas are in the clear. Several days of stormy weather lay ahead and some slopes could be pushed past their breaking point as temperatures warm and more water accumulates.
Problem #2: Wet Loose
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
When snow transitions to rain, start thinking about wet avalanches. Natural loose wet, and possibly even wet slab, avalanches will occur. Don’t let these easy to predict loose wet avalanches surprise you. Steer away from steep slopes and be leery of traveling above or around terrain traps where even a small avalanche could harm you. At mid-elevations, where more snow accumulates before switching to rain, you could see wet slab avalanches. These can be incredibly hard to predict. Any wet slide will be larger and could travel further as warming temperatures affect higher elevations.
Rising temperatures and rain at ridgecrest brings naturally failing cornices to mind. Avoid traveling on or under these potential unique avalanche hazard.
Forecast Discussion
Heavy snow Tuesday night turns to rain and high-elevation snow Wednesday as snow levels climb. New snow is sitting on a slick crust from late January, and strong southwest winds are building deeper slabs on lee slopes near and above treeline. Expect storm slabs to be easy to trigger and capable of running full track wherever more than a foot of new snow has accumulated.
As rain soaks into the new snow below about 4,500 ft, wet loose avalanches become the concern. Avoid travel on or beneath open slopes steeper than 35 degrees, and give terrain traps and gullies a wide berth. This is a day to keep it simple: stick to low-angle, well-supported terrain.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.